Emerging Powers and the future of international Balances: India as a case study

Introduction :

At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the world witnessed the emergence of many world powers on the international scene. Where these emerging powers succeeded in breaking Fukuyama's theory in his book The End of the World and the Last Man, which confirmed the inevitable superiority of American liberalism over the world and unipolarity after nearly half a century of conflict between the Soviets and the Americans. The theory of Fukuyama Professor Samuel Huntington who responded to his student in The Clash of Civilizations and Reshaping the World Order in which he referred to a multipolar world is reinforced. With the beginning of the 21st century, American hegemony stopped, as many countries began to witness major transformations at all levels, especially with the rise of eastern countries such as the Chinese dragon and the Indian elephant. It is also important to note the Russian attempts to exploit the Soviet legacy and create the Russian Federation.
New military and economic blocs emerged in the world all threatening American hegemony. Among these emerging powers on the Asian continent, we find India.
India possesses almost all the features that can make it great power, demographically and geographically.
It is also currently considered one of the largest economic powers after it opened its door wide in the nineties to foreign investments after a century of closed policy that brought to it many crises. Although India is a strategic ally of the United States of America in the world,
but America is bothered by this rise. Yet it favors the rise of India at the expense of China, so the United States of America supports India on many levels militarily and economically.
At the same time, India faces many difficulties, especially with its neighbors (China and Pakistan), and the internal situation in India is all ethnic and sectarian conflicts because these conflicts tore Indian geography and could lead to civil war at any moment.
India's rise will not only affect it alone, but will also affect many countries in the world, especially its neighborhoods, which are located in a region of global tension, and its rise will affect international relations in general.
Therefore, during this research, we will present the contributing factors to the rise of India as pillars of strength and the factors that could be an obstacle, and the implications of this for international relations. Therefore, the research question will be, how will the future of international relations be in light of the rise of the Indian elephant as a global power? To answer this question, we will divide it into a set of questions:

• 
  How does the rise of new powers on the world stage affect the future of international relations?

• 
  What are the pillars of power that enable India to become a global power?
  What are the difficulties faced by India in the process of its rise?

• 
  How will the rise of the Indian elephant affect international relations?
  

During this study, we will follow the descriptive analytical method to study and analyze hidden phenomena. The rise of emerging powers in the world and its impact on the future of international relations:

After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the world headed toward a unipolar policy and the United States' dominance over the world. Many writings emerged in this regard, predicting the emergence of a civilizational conflict in the world after the conflict of ideologies and polarization during the Cold War. The most prominent of them are the writings of the Moroccan thinker Al-Mahdi Al-Manjar in his book Mega Imperialism and Samuel Huntington in his book The Clash of Civilizations.
Where civilized blocs based on culture and religion will emerge in the world and will stand up to American hegemony and reduce its influence on the world.
All these prophecies were fulfilled during the beginning of the 21st century, specifically with the September 11 strike, which moved the world and turned international relations upside down. It coincided with the emergence of rising economic and military powers in the world and civilizational alliances, all targeting unipolarity and paving the way for multipolarity in the world.
The BRICS organization is one of the largest global economic blocs of emerging powers. PREMIS is an acronym for the names of the member countries of the economic organization that was founded in 2008, ()and they are the countries with the fastest growth in the world, as it includes Russia, China, Brazil, South Africa, and India. The world's emerging economies contribute more than half of the world's total GDP (). These changes will eventually lead to major shifts in international economic security and even political and military balances, which will affect international relations. This meteoric rise can be observed in Eastern countries most notably in regards to China and India. In this study, we will address India which is often described as the sleeping elephant that has risen with an imaginary force. Analysts consider it as the Indian miracle that achieved the fastest growth rates in history, even surpassing its Chinese archenemy. pillars of strength. Population and geographical spread, The natural resources it contains, and its economic situation.
“The potential rise of China and India as major new global players may change the global geopolitical landscape as did Germany in the nineteenth century and the United States in the twentieth century, with dramatic effects as in the past two centuries.” ()
The classical theory of international relations indicates that during periods of “transition of power” between nations, a new context occurs for the distribution of power that leads to many dangers: including misunderstandings, expectations, and impressions among these nations. This could push toward serious crises and conflicts in the international system. Despite these economic and security alliances between these countries, they know many thorny issues and conflicts between them. ()

The course of the Indian economy:

India gained its independence from Britain in 1947, after nearly half a century of colonialism, to be divided into two parts, India, which has Hindu law, and Pakistan, which has a Muslim majority. India has witnessed long decades of major conflicts and turmoil, three wars against Pakistan and another war against its Chinese neighbor in 1962, ()and all these wars were fought by India because of its borders, with Pakistan over the Kashmir region, and with China because of the western Himalayas. As for the economic aspect, India's economic renaissance began with the Nehru government, but it was focused on meeting the needs of the local market only.
This economic policy continued for half a century and was based on the adoption of closed socialist trends, that is, focusing on the local market and not being open to foreign markets, in which the economy is concentrated in the hands of the state and the private sector is marginalized.
This made India unable to keep pace with the economic developments in the world because of its closed policy. At the same time, the country became full of poverty and economic stagnation.
In 1991, India received two political and economic shocks. The first was the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, the prime minister and the last head of India's Gandhi family, who was assassinated by the separatist group, the Tamil Tigers. As for the second slap, it was economic : as India announced that its hard currency reserves had fallen to less than one billion dollars, accompanied by inflation of more than 17%,() which ignited the high prices and made nearly half of the Indian people below the poverty line.
At the time, everyone was waiting for India to declare bankruptcy, but these slaps, instead of eliminating India, woke the Indian elephant from its slumber to move on its path toward economic revival.
The first steps were to liberate the economy and open up to the world. It eliminated trade barriers, reduced taxes, and undermined government monopolies, which led to the influx of foreign investments, as India gave the right to ownership to foreigners, which brought it the largest companies in the world, especially technology.
This made India witness a revival at all levels of agriculture, industry, and services, and witnessed a growth rate of 7% annually within 5 years. ()
I also go to India to support small projects, loans, and aid, exempt them from taxes and eliminate the bureaucracy, as it was aiming India to produce everything, which made it in a short period thanks to this policy export almost everything.
Many factors were supportive of this economic renaissance, similar to the economic policy, where India is geographically the size of a continent of 328,7263() square kilometers, which is the seventh-largest country in the world, and its population in the year 2020 reached 1,326,093,247 residents, according to official statistics. become a global power. ()
Also, the secret of the success of the Indian experience is attributed by many to the educational policy followed by the state, as India is a country of geniuses and one of the largest exporters of brains in the world, a third of the workers in Silicon Valley are from India and 750 ()technology companies in Silicon Valley alone are run by Indians.

The manifestations of the rise of the Indian elephant :

India ranks fifth in the world as the most powerful economy, as the size of the Indian economy is about 3 trillion US dollars. This makes it the fifth in the world in terms of economic strength. Bypassing that of Britain, France, and Germany.
The largest milk-producing country in the world, and the second-largest producer of fruits and vegetables in the world; The country is also prosperous in trade and seafood; Overall, agricultural production accounts for more than half of all jobs in India. ()
India will become the second-largest player in world trade by 2030 as its economy grows at an average annual rate of 6.9% between now and then. ()
India is the largest exporter of geniuses in the world.
With the strength of education and scientific research; The Indian army has risen to the fourth rank in the world. outperforms the major countries in the world. With the advantage of nuclear weapons that are produced with purely Indian minds, expertise, and capabilities.
With the strength of education and scientific research; The Indian army has risen to the fourth rank in the world. outperforms the major countries in the world. With the advantage of nuclear weapons that are produced with purely Indian minds, expertise, and capabilities.
Indian concern about energy security casts a heavy shadow on the country’s position on geopolitical security.
The Indian Army is the fourth most powerful army in the world, with about 4.8 million() active soldiers, while the Reserve Army is 2,142,821. ()
India is among the nuclear countries, with about 130 and 140 nuclear weapons, and it also possesses about 8300 kg of plutonium, which is enough to make 1000 nuclear weapons. () This allows India to carry out nuclear attacks and to have these destructive weapons as a powerful deterrent and negotiating force in the world.
India is also a world leader in the field of electronic warfare, and it also includes naval forces that own two fleets, the first of which is the Eastern Fleet, which is concentrated in the Bay of Bengal, and the second is the Western Fleet, which is concentrated in the Arabian Sea. India has about 19 submarines, 25 major surface units, destroyers, frigates, minesweepers, amphibious parts, coastal and patrol units, and 28 different naval support and support units.
India has a huge fleet of aircraft and land vehicles such as tanks and others. ()

The future of international relations in light of the rise of the Indian elephant :

India's rise will certainly reflect on international relations, especially in the Asian region, and India is located in geography where its powerful neighbors are hostile to Pakistan and China because of border problems. India is also a strategic ally of the United States of America in its region.
Where the relationship of the United States of America was strengthened after the events of September 11 due to the agreement of the two parties on the concept of the war on terrorism launched by George W. Bush, as well as the rise of the Chinese dragon, which has become a military threat to the Asian region and the United States of America, as well as the rise of jihadist groups in both Afghanistan and Central Asia.
For India, the alliance with the United States of America enables it to keep pace with its traditional enemy, China, which is militarily and nuclearly superior to it, and Pakistan has also been able to acquire nuclear power with Chinese help. It makes India look for an international power as an umbrella for it, especially since its old ally Russia is looking forward to the Chinese giant. India also tried to direct the US war on terrorism against separatist groups present in the territory of Kashmir.
Despite the strong relationship between the two countries, there are many problems between them, most notably the Indian nuclear file, imitation, and counterfeiting of trademarks, India's violations of human rights, and its lack of respect for freedoms.
The future of international relations is at stake. And India's strategy will be crucial in shaping it. India can be a superpower, but it needs to make some critical strategic decisions
The US administration also opposes India's intervention in Burma, as it is battling with China for hegemony over the military establishment there to be able to extend its influence over the gas in it. So that the Iranian-Indian agreement on the construction of a gas station and the extension of a gas pipeline in Tajikistan, along with a security cooperation agreement and military maneuvers between the two countries, angered the Americans. ()
However, the future of relations between the two countries remains solid, especially regarding the war on terrorism and the Indian security link with the United States of America, especially securing the Indian Ocean. ()

India also seeks to build good relations with the Arab Gulf states, as India's great energy needs make it need to build a good relationship with these countries, just as most of the Indian migrant workers work in the Gulf states. () However, many files can cause tension in relations. As for the Israeli-Indian relations, the normalization of relations between the Gulf states and Israel is in the interest of India, which has strong relations with Israel, While the Kashmir issue could be a reason for the lack of development or tension in the relationship, as Pakistan is considered a strategic and military ally of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
There is a very large Indo-European rapprochement, especially about information technology, in light of a globalized global society, cooperation between the two parties will develop, and there is great security coordination, especially in the file of combating terrorism and advocating for a multipolar world.

Challenges to the rise of India :

India is known as the first country in the world in terms of its multiplicity of nationalities, races, religions, and languages. Hinduism is the majority religion in India with 79.80%, followed by Muslims with 14.23%, Christianity with 2.30%, Sikhism with 1.72%, Buddhism with 0.70%, and other religions with 45%.()
This diversity is reflected in the national security of India, as India has witnessed many problems and ethnic conflicts since its establishment. Muslims are considered the largest minority in India, and if Muhammad Jinnah managed to seize a geographical part of India to establish a home for Muslims in it, which is Pakistan, the rest of the Muslim Indians are being persecuted today in India.
Muslims in India suffer from marginalization and poverty and are being sentenced to death in the name of the war on terror.
Where India took advantage of the events of September 11 and the US declaration of war on terrorism to persecute Muslims there.
The Indian government is also covering up the crimes of Hindus against Muslims, including killing, torture, and demolition of the mosque, and even against other sects such as the Sikhs, which led to the establishment of separatist movements in many Indian regions, in which major violations occur Kashmir, Assam, and others.
One of the most important violations is the Indigo massacre in the state of Assam, where an extremist Hindu group attacked Muslims of the Bengal ethnicity, killing 2,191 people. ()
Among the most important massacres against Muslims is the Gilberg massacre that occurred in 2002, where 35 people were burned alive and the total number of dead reached 69 Muslims in Ahmedabad. ()
Therefore, these areas in India are known to contain the most separatist groups in India, such as the Assam Liberation Front, the National Democratic Front of Bodoland, the Manipur People's Liberation Army, the Kanglepak People's Revolutionary Party, and the Kanglipak Communist Party.
As for the Sheikh, their reactions were represented in the assassination of many Indian personalities, most notably the assassination of Prime Minister Andre Gandhi. ()
In addition, the Indian government launched the hands of Hindu extremists against Muslims, which led to India receiving many terrorist strikes and the activity of many extremist groups against it.
India's border disputes with its neighbor China and Pakistan are also considered among the most important challenges facing its rise, especially the Kashmir issue between it and Pakistan. Which led to the outbreak of three wars between the two countries in 1947, 1965, and 1999, with a threat between the two countries to use nuclear weapons. The Muslim-majority region of Kashmir is also subjected to systematic persecution by the Indian government, and the region contains many armed factions such as Lashkar-e-Taiba ()and others that are fighting India.

Conclusion :

The economic boom that India has experienced in recent years is one of the most important elements of its rise as an actor and a major player in global politics. It also establishes India as a major global power that has the qualifications to dominate international politics in the future. The economic boom that India has experienced in recent years is one of the most important elements of its rise as an actor and a major player in global politics. It also establishes India as a major global power that has the qualifications to dominate international politics in the future. Many Muslim countries denounce this Indian practice, especially Pakistan and Turkey. In addition, the number of international humanitarian and human rights organizations is a blatant violation of India in the field of human rights.
This raises the possibility of a civil war in India at any moment, under international intervention, makes India a target for strikes by radical Islamic organizations, and increases the revival of separatist movements in it. This will negatively affect the regional security of India and the rest of the other areas in it and impede its rise.
India's presence in a geographical region characterized by conflicts between neighborhoods, where India is experiencing border problems with its nuclear neighbors Pakistan and China, the outbreak of any war between it and these parties will not be in its interest in terms of militarily, and it lost a war in the past with China. And that a war with one of these parties will affect India negatively, even at the level of international relations.
India can continue to rise economically and militarily in the coming years, but it will witness many recurrences at the level of international relations due to its external and internal conflicts that will impede its progress in the future.

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